Immigration has been a touchstone of the U.S. political debate for decades, as policymakers must weigh competing economic, security, and humanitarian concerns. Immigration affects us all. Whether you are an immigration lawyer, an employer hiring H-1B migrants, or a potential future tax-paying citizen of this country, the issue will likely determine the outcome of the 2020 election in the United States.
If Donald Trump wins re-election in 2020 what can we expect in regards to immigration law?
To be as objective and unbiased as possible, we researched information from Forbes, law.com, CNBC, Fox News, and Caspian Report and collated it in this report. We cover 5 key issues that will likely surface in the political landscape as election day (Tuesday, November 3rd, 2020) draws closer.
As asylum seekers approach the U.S. Mexico border, and migrant caravans seek the safety of U.S. soil, the issue is likely to be tense and politically heated. Here are some predictions we can expects to see in immigration law:
1. Greater Regulation on H-1B Visa Holders and Their Employers
Higher barriers to entry for H-1B visa holders.
A National Foundation for American Policy analysis of USCIS data found Trump’s “Buy American and Hire American” executive order helped lead to a 41% increase in the proportion of H-1B petitions denied between the 3rd and 4th quarter of FY 2017. Source: Forbes.
2. Government Shutdowns
Continued government shutdowns.
If past performance can be indicative of future promises, the Trump administration will continue to use the topic of immigration as a means to increase security, especially at the border. (Where leftist Democrats see the president as fear mongering, right-wing Republicans see his passion to build the wall as a calculated security measure).
3. Further travel bans on terror-linked countries
At the height of the Syrian migration refugee crisis on March 6, 2017, Trump issued an executive order temporarily suspending immigration from six countries. These six countries were
For a period of 90 days migrants were not allowed to come in from these countries. According to reports from BallotPedia, the move was enacted as a countermeasure to give the U.S. government greater time to implement heightened visa screenings and data sharing between departments & foreign countries. If the administration can do it once, they can do it again.
One of the most important topics during 2018 was the complaint by Human Rights Watch Organizations against the treatment of refugees in detention camps. Deportees were processed without due process of law. Human Rights Watch reported 12 deaths in 2017; these deaths were linked to substandard medical care.
4. Congressional Oversight of Immigration Policy
In the past two years, there has been virtually no Congressional oversight administration immigration policies (including migrant detention, forced deportation, punitive customs actions, and severely delayed proceedings.) That will change with the Democrats taking control of the House of Representatives. This provides greater opportunities for immigrant attorneys and lawyers working with the migrant population, as the greater oversight will allow more cases to open up. Source: Forbes
5. RAISE Act may do away with the Visa Lottery
The bill would move away from the system of awarding visas based on various categories of employment and instead implement a points-based system. Under the points-based system, potential immigrants would earn points “based on education, English-language ability, high-paying job offers, age, record of extraordinary achievement, and entrepreneurial initiative.” An individual would need to earn 30 points before becoming eligible for a visa; they would then join a pool of other eligible individuals, from which U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services would twice per year select individuals with the most points to fill out applications. Up to 140,000 immigrants would be granted employment-based visas annually.
The bill would also eliminate the Diversity Lottery—which was established to provide 50,000 visas to individuals from countries with historically low rates of immigration to the United States—as well as family-based immigration for siblings and adult children. Permanent visas given to refugees would be capped at 50,000 annually.
President Donald Trump endorsed the bill, stating “This legislation will not only restore our competitive edge in the 21st century, but it will restore the sacred bonds of trust between America and its citizens.” Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer criticized the bill, saying that the bill “goes after hardworking people who want to play by the rules” and that “to cut immigration by half a million people, legal immigration, doesn’t make much sense.” Source: BallotPedia
What are the chances Donald Trump wins re-election in 2020?
- The Daily Beast reports that “Trump Should Have a 70% Chance of Winning in 2020”.
- These chances go higher if consumer confidence remains high. Source: CNBC
- For now, consumer confidence seems to be working in favor of Trump’s possible re-election bid.
- If Democrats are desperate for Trump to be voted out of office, they may have to root for an economic recession, which runs counter to their own personal fortunes. Source: CNBC
- Michael Cohen’s deposition may have shown some kinks in his former boss’ armor. Cohen worked for Trump for 12 years as the vice president of the Trump organization, and accordingly saw many of the backdoor deals, including the “hush money” payout to Stormy Daniels.
We The People: Final Thoughts
“How is the U.S. being viewed in Europe?”
As we do, they do.
The U.S. goes into a Recession, the rest of the world follows.
We elect nationalistic-minded leaders, other nations start to follow suit and do the same. i.e. Germany, Italy, France, Bosnia.
“European policy makers will take steps to press for a divorce from America; they will take active and irreversible steps to prepare for a post-NATO world. This divorce was bound to happen either way, but Trump has accelerated that process by decades.” Source: Caspian Report
Trump is a reflection of us
John F. Kennedy once said “Ask not what your country can do for you—ask what you can do for your country.”
Perhaps we should do less finger pointing at the politicians in power, and look to our own biases and fears.
We, the American people elected this president; he is a reflection of us. Simon Sinek says: “Our politicians are a mirror, raised to us.”
We end with this video:
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